⧆ EXPLORATION MODE — Per-Coin Arc Tracking
MAY 24 → JUL 29 2026 · GRADED OUTCOMES · EACH COIN BUILDS ITS OWN ARC
Partial wins and losses are measurable. A 0.3% win is not the same as a 12% win — they're recorded as
PARTIAL_WIN (+0.3) and BIG_WIN (+1.0). Each closed signal contributes a graded outcome score from -1.0 to +1.0
to its coin's arc. Calibration coefficient is the correlation between predicted score and graded outcome.
By Jul 31 every coin has a graded calibration profile we can size against.
OUTCOME BANDS
BIG_WIN ≥+8%
STRONG +4-8%
GOOD +2-4%
PARTIAL +0.5-2%
FLAT ±0.5%
PARTIAL -0.5-2%
BAD -2-4%
STRONG -4-8%
BIG_LOSS ≤-8%
WINDOW
— d
until window opens
GLOBAL P&L
—
accumulating
AVG OUTCOME
—
expected value
Each coin only paper-trades when its ruling planet is structurally active.
EV interpretation: > +0.3 = profitable | -0.3 to +0.3 = noise | < -0.3 = inverted/avoid.
Calibration: > 0.5 = framework reliable | 0.2-0.5 = weak signal | -0.2 to 0.2 = no predictive power | < -0.2 = inverted.